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Author: James Calloway, International Trade and Logistics Writer
If you run a business that imports goods into Australia, the past few months have been one of the most disruptive periods in global shipping since COVID-19. Freight quotes ballooned overnight. Surcharges appeared that weren’t in any budget. Shipment timelines stretched. And the underlying uncertainty made planning feel almost impossible.
A lot has changed in global freight in the past few weeks. The biggest diplomatic development since the conflict began has just landed. But as much as that’s genuinely positive news, the freight market doesn’t bounce back overnight. And the structural questions this crisis has raised about Australia’s supply chain vulnerability aren’t going away with a signature.
Here’s the full picture for Australian importers right now.
Where Things Actually Stand: The Deal That Was Just Signed
The US and Iran signed an initial agreement on 17 June 2026, kicking off a 60-day period of negotiations on a final deal to end the war. The text of the memorandum of understanding calls for the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts.
The agreement could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, ease pressure on global energy markets and create a window for negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. The memorandum of understanding marks the war’s biggest diplomatic breakthrough and buys time for negotiations over unresolved nuclear questions.
The MOU calls for an end to military strikes, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping toll-free for 60 days, the lifting of the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, and a 60-day extension of the ceasefire.
This is meaningful. The Strait of Hormuz carrying around 20% of the world’s traded oil and gas back toward normal operations would significantly ease the global supply shock that has been driving freight costs up since late February.
But there are important caveats worth understanding before anyone assumes the freight market simply resets to what it was.
Fully reopening the strait may not happen immediately. Mine-clearing, repairing infrastructure and guaranteeing security could take time before a full return to pre-war shipping volumes.
Key issues including the final status of Iran’s nuclear program remain unresolved and are expected to be discussed in later negotiations during the ceasefire period. The framework deal does not include the Iranian ballistic missile program or its network of non-state allies in the Middle East.
As of this weekend, talks between the US and Iran delegations are continuing in Switzerland. Vice President Vance said the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the ending of the Iranian nuclear program have already been accomplished, and the question now is how much more can be accomplished together.
The 60-day negotiating window is genuinely encouraging. It is not a guarantee of permanent resolution.
What the Conflict Did to Global Shipping
To understand where we go from here, it helps to understand the scale of what happened.
For the first time in modern history, both of the Middle East’s key shipping corridors, the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, were closed simultaneously. This dual closure is unprecedented and reshaping global freight routing, pricing, and capacity in ways not seen since COVID-19. Approximately 10.7% of the global container fleet was directly impacted. 138 container ships were trapped in the Persian Gulf in early March, accounting for around 470,000 TEUs.
For Australian shippers, the impact was direct and immediate. The Middle East is not just a destination. It is the critical transit hub for the vast majority of Australian sea and air freight moving to and from Europe, the UK, and South Asia. The Freight and Trade Alliance and the Australian Peak Shippers Association publicly stated that the situation was having direct and measurable impacts on Australian supply chains.
The global freight market was already fragile before this conflict. Overcapacity in ocean shipping and soft demand had been suppressing carrier earnings. The conflict injected demand-side pressure onto a cost side already under strain.
The China to Australia Lane: What Actually Happened
For Australian businesses whose primary sourcing is from China, the direct routing impact was less severe than the Europe and Middle East corridors. The main sea freight lane between China and Australia runs through the South China Sea and across the Indian Ocean, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
But global shipping is not a collection of sealed, independent lanes. When a significant portion of the world’s container fleet gets diverted, delayed, or trapped, the effects spread through every trade lane.
Shipping is no longer just about supply and demand. It’s about surcharges. Because of the situation in the Middle East, carriers implemented as many and as high surcharges as possible, whether as fuel-related or emergency conflict fees. Congestion effects in Asia impacted everything and everyone, with surcharges flowing through on Pacific routes as well.
Bunker fuel costs, which flow through to almost every freight invoice, rose sharply alongside oil prices during the conflict. Container availability at Chinese ports was affected as vessels were repositioned globally. Equipment availability tightened. Booking windows shortened. Blank sailings increased.
For anyone who placed freight bookings between March and June 2026, the cost and the lead time were materially different to anything that had been budgeted based on 2025 conditions.
Will the Deal Bring Freight Costs Down Quickly?
This is the question every importer is asking right now. The honest answer is: partially, over time, but not immediately and not completely.
Even with a ceasefire agreed, the freight market does not bounce back immediately. It would take at least two months for shipping companies to resume normal tanker operations through Hormuz, and several months beyond that to repair energy infrastructure that has been damaged.
The physical process of reopening the strait involves mine-clearing operations, infrastructure assessment, and the gradual return of confidence from carriers and insurers who pulled back from Gulf routing. War risk insurance premiums, which surged 50 to 100% during the conflict, will take time to normalise. The P&I clubs that cancelled Gulf coverage will need to reinstate it before many carriers feel comfortable resuming normal operations.
There is also the carrier surcharge dynamic to understand. Carriers’ variable bunker fuel surcharges are often adjusted each quarter with a one-month notice, meaning the surge in oil prices was already locked into Q3 2026 charges. These surcharges do not disappear automatically when the geopolitical situation changes.
Since the Australian government’s reduction in fuel excise from 1 April, retail diesel prices have come down significantly. Petrol prices are now lower than before the conflict began. But the excise cut runs only until 30 June 2026, after which prices will be more dependent on where global oil markets settle.
The trajectory is positive. The timeline to a full normalisation of freight costs is measured in months, not days.
What This Means Specifically for Australian Importers
For businesses sourcing from China, the near-term outlook is cautiously more positive than it was a month ago. The MOU signing reduces the tail risk of escalation that was making long-term planning very difficult.
But there are practical realities that haven’t changed.
The Red Sea corridor, which connects Asia-Europe shipping, has been effectively closed since late 2023 due to Houthi activity, even before the Iran conflict added a second layer of disruption. Any plans for a phased return of container shipping to the Red Sea in 2026 were shelved until the security situation became clearer. The MOU may create conditions for a gradual Red Sea reopening, but that is not guaranteed and not immediate.
Cape of Good Hope routing, which adds 10 to 14 days to Asia-Europe voyages, has become the de facto standard for that trade lane. Carriers have structured their vessel networks around this routing and it will take time to shift back even once the security conditions improve.
For Australian importers specifically, the most practical adjustments for the second half of 2026 remain the same regardless of the ceasefire status. Plan further ahead than you normally would. Build buffer into your transit time expectations. Don’t assume freight rates will fall to pre-conflict levels in the short term. And maintain close communication with your freight forwarder about what’s actually happening in the market week to week.
The Structural Vulnerability This Crisis Exposed
The Iran conflict didn’t just disrupt Australian supply chains temporarily. It exposed something that energy analysts and logistics professionals have been flagging for years.
In 2026, the Middle East is no longer just an energy source. It is a laboratory for global supply chain resilience. The nations that succeed will be those that strike a sustainable balance between economic efficiency and national security. Strategic recommendations include accelerating the establishment of a Maritime Strategic Fleet, diversifying transport corridors, and developing regional refining partnerships with stable partners such as Vietnam and India to reduce dependence on a narrow set of refining hubs.
Australia imports roughly 90% of its liquid fuel. It is heavily dependent on a small number of shipping corridors. Its strategic fuel reserves were below IEA recommended minimums before the crisis began. The $15 billion the government spent responding to the supply crisis was the price of those structural gaps made suddenly visible.
For Australian businesses, this context matters because the lesson of 2026 is not simply that a specific conflict caused a specific disruption. It’s that the global trade environment is structurally more volatile than it appeared during the stable decade before, and that supply chains built purely around efficiency assumptions are fragile when geopolitical risks materialise.
Diversifying sourcing, building more inventory buffer, and establishing strong relationships with professional logistics providers who can navigate disruptions quickly are not just responses to this specific crisis. They’re the right operating posture for the environment Australian businesses are now operating in.
The Air Freight Picture
Air cargo has historically served as the relief valve when ocean freight becomes unreliable or expensive. Time-sensitive goods including electronics, pharmaceuticals, and automotive parts migrated from ocean to air as ocean timelines became unpredictable. Cargo capacity tightened, pushing air freight rates upward across trade lanes. The capacity crunch was most acute on Asia-to-Europe lanes, where both ocean diversion demand and existing e-commerce growth were already competing for belly space.
As the Strait of Hormuz reopens and ocean shipping normalises, some of the demand pressure on air freight should ease. But Gulf hub airlines including Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad, which together handle a significant proportion of global air cargo, have been operating under significant disruption. Their gradual return to normal operations will take time to flow through to capacity and pricing.
For businesses currently using air freight for time-sensitive stock, the practical advice is to stay in close contact with your freight forwarder about current capacity and pricing, and to reassess whether some shipments can return to sea freight as ocean conditions stabilise.
Why a Professional Freight Forwarder Is Not Optional in This Environment
I want to be direct about this because it’s the part that makes the most practical difference for Australian businesses right now.
In a stable freight market, a professional freight forwarder is a useful operational asset. In the market that exists right now, where surcharges change fortnightly, where carrier reliability varies significantly between routes and services, where insurance requirements have shifted, and where the geopolitical situation is still evolving, a professional freight forwarder is a genuine competitive advantage.
Here is what they actually provide in the current environment.
They know what’s happening in the market in real time. The MOU was signed on 17 June. Within days, experienced freight forwarders are already assessing what that means for specific trade lanes, which carriers are adjusting their routing, how quickly surcharges might be reviewed, and what the realistic timeline to normalisation looks like for specific services. That intelligence is not available to individual importers doing their own research.
They protect you from overpaying on surcharges. Carriers are implementing surcharges across every trade lane and reviewing them as frequently as every two weeks. Understanding which surcharges legitimately apply to your specific shipment and which are being applied opportunistically requires market knowledge and relationships that individual importers don’t have.
They manage cargo insurance in a market where gaps can be expensive. War risk coverage, which was withdrawn by multiple major insurers at the height of the conflict, is returning gradually. Ensuring your cargo is properly insured for current conditions requires professional oversight, not a standard policy that was written before the market changed.
They handle documentation and compliance regardless of what happens during transit. Australian Border Force and biosecurity requirements are the same whether your cargo arrives as planned or via a rerouted service through an alternative port. A freight forwarder with a strong customs team ensures your goods clear cleanly regardless of the complexity of the journey they took to get here.
They give you someone who can actually move on problems. When a booking gets rolled, when a surcharge appears that wasn’t in the quote, when a carrier changes routing mid-transit, having a freight forwarder who knows your shipment and has relationships with the carrier is the difference between a managed situation and a crisis.
The Freight and Trade Alliance at freightandtrade.com.au provides accreditation information for Australian freight professionals. The Australian Border Force at abf.gov.au and Austrade at austrade.gov.au both publish guidance relevant to Australian importers navigating the current environment.
Practical Steps for the Months Ahead
Given the MOU signing and the 60-day negotiating window now underway, here is what Australian importers should be doing right now.
Revisit your freight budget. Rates that were elevated during the worst of the conflict will ease somewhat, but they won’t return immediately to pre-February levels. Building a realistic view of freight costs for the second half of 2026 requires current market intelligence, not assumptions from either the pre-conflict period or the peak of the crisis.
Don’t rush to lock in long-term contracts just yet. With the market in transition, rates are moving. A 12-month contract locked in right now might look expensive in three months, or might look sensible depending on how quickly normalisation occurs. Your freight forwarder can advise on the right balance between forward booking security and flexibility given current conditions.
Continue building lead time into your ordering cycle. Even as the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the physical process of resuming normal shipping volumes takes months. Port congestion, equipment repositioning, and carrier schedule normalisation all take time. The freight market of the second half of 2026 is still going to be more complex than the pre-conflict period.
Review your supplier relationships and consider diversification. One of the most direct lessons from the past few months is that geographic concentration of sourcing creates vulnerability. If all your stock comes from a single country through a single trade lane, a disruption on that lane is an existential risk to your supply chain. Diversification across suppliers, countries, or at least shipping routes reduces that risk.
And stay close to your freight forwarder. In a market that has been moving as fast as this one, a monthly check-in isn’t enough. Weekly or even more frequent contact about what’s happening with your specific shipments and the broader market is worth the time.
The deal signed on 17 June is genuinely positive news for global trade. The road back to a stable, normalised freight market runs through that deal being successfully concluded over the 60-day negotiating period, and through the gradual physical reopening of the world’s shipping lanes. Australian businesses that plan carefully, work with the right professional partners, and approach the next few months with flexibility rather than fixed assumptions will navigate this transition significantly better than those who don’t.
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