Retail Theft in Australia: The Numbers Turned in 2025 — But Retailers Aren’t Celebrating

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For two years the retail crime story wrote itself: every data release was worse than the last. The 2026 story is more complicated, and more interesting. National theft has finally ticked down. Retail’s share of it has not meaningfully budged. And in the states where retailers are loudest, the trend line is still pointing the wrong way.

The turn: first national decline since 2021

The headline from the latest ABS release is genuine news. Victims of theft (excluding motor vehicles) and robbery recorded by police in 2025 fell for the first time since declines in 2020 and 2021 respectively.

But read the composition, not just the total. More than two-fifths of all thefts (excluding motor vehicles) occurred at a retail location — 43 per cent, or 247,425 victims. That is a small step back from 2024’s 45%, and it still leaves retail as far and away the single most-targeted setting in the country.

And one category went the other way entirely: motor vehicle thefts recorded by police increased nationally, reaching a 17-year high in 2025 at 66,625 victims, driven by an 11 per cent increase in Victoria and a 3 per cent increase in New South Wales, while other jurisdictions saw a fall. For retailers with car parks, forecourts and service-station formats, that is not an abstract statistic.

State detail from the 2025 release:

Queensland: 148,845 victims of other theft, a decrease of 2% (3,576 victims) — the first decrease since 2020. Over half of other theft offences occurred at a retail location (53%, or 78,521 victims).
Victoria: 116,808 victims of other theft, down 2% (1,725 victims), with retail locations the most common setting at 46% (53,222 victims).
ACT: 6,852 victims of other theft, an increase of 10% (625 victims), with two-fifths occurring at retail locations (40%, or 2,722 victims).

A national decline that is 2% in the big states is stabilisation, not recovery. It also arrives after the steepest run-up in two decades — Victoria’s ‘other’ theft had jumped 29 per cent to 169,673 victims in 2024, the highest in the time series. Falling 2% from a record high still leaves you at a record-adjacent high.

NSW is still climbing — and that’s this month’s news

The most recent state data cuts against the national trend. BOCSAR’s March 2026 quarterly update found reported retail theft continued to rise, up 9.1% over the last two years, driven by increases in theft of liquor (up 13%) and clothing and footwear (up 17%). Licensed premises were the most common target, accounting for 21% of incidents, with liquor making up 40% of retail theft incidents where an item was recorded.

Enforcement is responding: adult court actions for retail theft rose 16 per cent, up 1,272 in the 12 months to March 2026.

As of this month, the industry body is escalating. Retail theft increased by 10.4 per cent in NSW over the past two years while the other 12 major offence categories BOCSAR tracks remained stable — the equivalent of 90 incidents every day. That selectivity is the argument: this isn’t general lawlessness, it’s a category-specific problem.

Western Australia shows the same repeat-offender signature. Figures from the WA Government show 679 people have been charged with assaulting a retail worker since the specific offence came into effect in July 2024, and WA police have identified more than 1,100 retail theft repeat offenders processed for at least two offences in the prior 12 months.

Who represents retailers now — a naming correction

Worth getting right in any 2026 copy: the Australian Retail Council is now the nation’s retail industry body, with CEO Chris Rodwell calling for NSW to follow SA and Victoria in introducing Workplace Protection Orders. Coverage from earlier in the year still alternates between “ARA” and “ARC” — the safest approach is to use Australian Retail Council (ARC) and note the former ARA branding once.

The legislative scoreboard, September 2026

Delivered: Victoria introduced tougher penalties for assaults on frontline workers, with threatening or attacking a shop assistant now carrying prison terms. Workplace protection orders have been introduced in the ACT, alongside SA.

Stalled: WA’s Retail Barring Orders Bill passed the Legislative Assembly on 12 March and has yet to be passed. It would allow courts to ban repeat offenders from certain retail locations for up to two years. “Every further delay leaves retail workers exposed to repeat offenders these laws are designed to keep out of stores, supermarkets and shopping centres,” Rodwell said.

Unresolved: a national approach. The ARC has argued the surge over the past five years underlines the need for the Federal Government to work with the states on a unified approach.

Why enforcement alone won’t hold the line

Even the industry’s own advocates concede the ceiling of a law-and-order response. Emerging data suggests police resourcing in parts of Victoria has tightened even as reported retail crime remains elevated, reinforcing industry concerns that deterrence alone will not close the gap — expectations of safer stores are rising faster than the systems designed to deliver them. Rodwell’s own framing: “Without targeted enforcement and resourcing, the problem will not change on the ground.”

The deeper driver is cultural. Monash research found more than a quarter of consumers now view theft as justifiable, and the causes stretch into strained household budgets, digital anonymity, shifting social norms, and changes in younger Australians’ moral calculus.

There’s also a data problem the sector has created for itself. Retail is not yet operating at the level of other high-risk industries: under-reporting remains widespread, responses differ sharply among stores, many workers carry the emotional toll alone, and the industry lacks the co-ordinated intelligence to treat crime as a signal rather than noise. A 2% national dip is impossible to interpret confidently when the denominator is this soft.

What retailers should do in the back half of 2026

Don’t let the national dip set your budget. Your state trend is the operative number. NSW and WA retailers are managing a rising curve regardless of what the national aggregate says.
Target the actual loss. In NSW, liquor made up 40% of retail theft incidents where an item was recorded. Category-specific controls beat blanket ones.
Fix the evidence chain. The entrance camera should capture a clear face shot of people entering and leaving — often more useful than a ceiling camera over the aisles.
Watch the car park. With motor vehicle theft at a 17-year high, perimeter and forecourt coverage now carries weight it didn’t two years ago.
Report everything, every time. Under-reporting is what makes retail crime invisible to police resourcing models.
Invest in de-escalation over confrontation. Woolworths and Coles have issued body cameras to hundreds of frontline staff and trained thousands of others in handling confrontation.

The bottom line

2025 was the year the national numbers stopped getting worse. That is not the same as getting better, and it is emphatically not the same everywhere — NSW retail theft is up 9.1% over two years while the country as a whole edges down. The retailers reading this correctly are treating the plateau as a window to build systems, not as permission to stand down.

What changed from the earlier draft:

Earlier draft	Current position
595,660 victims, up 6% (2024)	2025 release shows first fall since 2021; retail share 43% / 247,425 victims
Retail = 45% of thefts	45% was 2024; 2025 is 43%
NSW retail theft +10.4% over two years	Still valid (Sept 2026), but BOCSAR’s March 2026 quarterly reports +9.1% — cite the one matching your publication date
ARA as peak body	Australian Retail Council (ARC), Chris Rodwell CEO
2024 ANZ Retail Crime Study, $7.79bn	Still the most recent dollar figure available; label it clearly as FY2023–24

One honest caveat: the $7.79bn cost-of-crime figure remains the newest published sector-wide estimate I can find, so it should be dated explicitly rather than presented as current-year.